While it's not necessary to rely on a single data source, using one standard helps when comparing performance. Exchange prices and aggregators like CoinMarketCap are useful, but they can show material discrepancies. We prefer the BRR because it's the institutional standard—used in futures, derivatives, and basis trades—where precision and reliability are paramount. With significant capital relying on this metric, we expect the BRR to become the de facto reference price for bitcoin.
Tracking price is one thing—but from an investment perspective, what’s a fair benchmark to compare bitcoin against? Should it be gold? A single stock? A broad index?
We believe a compelling benchmark is the Magnificent 7—a group of leading tech stocks that includes Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta Platforms (META).
These companies embody many of the same technological ideals as bitcoin. As bitcoin has evolved, its price has often shown high correlation with tech stocks, suggesting that markets currently view it as a risk-on asset—not the “digital gold” many assume it to be. While bitcoin may eventually decouple from risk assets and assume a more stable role as a digital store of value—especially as fiat currencies continue to erode—we’re not there yet.
Additionally, the Magnificent 7 are forward-looking firms that could integrate bitcoin into their operations. Tesla, for example, already holds bitcoin on its balance sheet. While not at MicroStrategy levels, it's still a notable position. Looking ahead, if bitcoin becomes a mainstream payment method, companies like Amazon or GPU manufacturers like Nvidia would be among the primary beneficiaries. Comparing bitcoin's performance to these companies makes sense—especially since their adoption of bitcoin could directly impact their business models, either by accepting it, building products for it, or enabling its use.
The relative performance of the BRR versus the Magnificent 7 is a key trend we’ll be watching closely. Over time, bitcoin’s outperformance—or underperformance—against this group may reflect broader adoption trends, institutional involvement, and the evolving narrative of what bitcoin is.
At its core, the carry trade is simple: buy spot bitcoin, and simultaneously sell a futures contract (usually one that expires in a few months). This locks in a spread between the spot and futures price—known as contango. When futures are trading above spot (which they often are), this becomes a low-risk, market-neutral way to earn a return.
Let’s say:
Spot bitcoin is trading at $60,000.
A 3-month futures contract is trading at $62,400.
You can buy 1 BTC spot and short the futures, locking in a $2,400 profit. Over three months, that’s a 4% return—annualized to roughly 16%. That return is earned without caring whether bitcoin goes up or down, as long as the two positions are properly hedged.
For large firms managing billions, this kind of “riskless” yield is gold. It’s higher than Treasuries, doesn’t rely on directional bitcoin bets, and is scalable—especially now that the CME and other venues have deep liquidity. With the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, this trade has become even easier to implement.
Rather than holding spot bitcoin directly, an institution can:
Buy ETF shares (which hold spot bitcoin).
Sell CME bitcoin futures against that position.
Sit back and collect the basis spread.
This is the carry trade in action—and it helps explain some of the huge ETF inflows we’ve seen this year. It’s not necessarily a flood of long-term holders—it might just be institutions putting on a structured trade.
While the carry trade offers a relatively guaranteed yield, it’s not without cost. The biggest tradeoff is giving up upside. If bitcoin jumps 30% in a month, your short futures position offsets those gains. You're not really "long bitcoin"—you're long the yield from the basis, not the asset itself.
It’s a classic risk/return choice:
Carry traders want stable returns with minimal exposure.
Long-term holders want full participation in bitcoin’s upside, accepting the volatility.
At DAIM, we think it’s important to understand who’s behind bitcoin’s flows. When price dips, it may not be a crisis of confidence—it might just be carry traders unwinding positions. Likewise, ETF inflows may not reflect widespread retail adoption but rather structured trades by large institutions chasing a few percent in yield.
The carry trade isn’t just a niche strategy—it’s shaping how bitcoin moves. It adds liquidity, but also changes the nature of price action. Understanding this helps you avoid false signals. Not every inflow is bullish. Not every outflow is bearish.
In short: the bitcoin market is maturing, and that includes strategies borrowed from traditional finance. The carry trade is one of them—and it’s here to stay.
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