Updated: May 13, 2019
BTC began July at $6300 and ended $7700 +22%. The period between the 13 and the 24th of July represented the significant move upward taking BTC out of its slide. In June I expected the space to move higher on the back of the SEC’s appointment of Valerie Szczepanik as the Senior Advisor for Digital Assets and innovation. To me it was a clear sign that they don’t want to close this space down yet in a calculated manner do the opposite. But the market still went lower, so what changed and brought us higher in July? The CBOE coming in and announcing it too was submitting for a bitcoin ETF. However, other etfs have been filed before, postponed, and denied (Winklevoss’) but this one has more credibility. Bitmain (Antpool) the largest miner, in a series B round had a valuation of $12B. Analyst from Alliance Bernstein released a positive report saying "crypto is not like the dot com bubble era" but more looked at as a parrell alternative to wall st. Incoming Goldman CEO ‘DJ Sol’ David Solomon says they are trying to help clients with bitcoin but doing it cautiously. Marc Lasry of Avenue Capital said he could see bitcoin reaching $40k in a few years and that he's an investor. He likes bitcoin because he says it's the one everyone's going to come to. Grayscale put out a H1 report showing massive inflows of $250m. Facebook and Google resumed digital asset advertising. India finance ministry panel not thinking of banning cryptocurrencies but wants to regulate them to monitor transactions.
August for BTC is being heralded as a very interesting one because journalist are waiting for the SEC make a decision on the CBOE’s etf (possibly by the 10th). I think the SEC denying the Winklevoss Bitcoin etf was them letting the space down easy and warning that the odds for CBOE etf being passed on Aug 10th have worsened. I think a more likely scenario is they delay it, pushing it out to Q1’19. Looking into August I see it more being a quiet month. September could be the month with another leg higher on larger investors/funds hunting extra yield and buying up the space.
Long BTC. This narrative is not investment advice. Please contact us regarding investing.
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