DAIM Issue 30 - Onward And Upward

December 29, 2023

December 29, 2023

  1. Price Targets
  2. Recap
We hope everyone is having a happy and safe holidays. Crypto was the gift that kept on giving this year and we feel confident that it will continue through next year. As we head into the 4th Bitcoin halving we wanted to survey the land to see where experts think the Bitcoin price is heading. Take a look at the predictions below and see if they align with your thoughts. We’ll be back in 2024 with our forecast. Enjoy the New Year!
  1. Price Targets - Here is a collection of prognostications. We don’t take any one of these as gospel but it is interesting to see where future price sentiment lies.

    2024 - Standard Charter Bank - $100,000. If you went back to 2014 it would be hard to imagine Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by the end of 2024. And yet this is one of the most conservative predictions out there given the current price. The bank is leaning heavily on earlier-than-expected spot ETF approval to hit the target. With the amount of institutional capital that could conceivably flow into the ecosystem, we think $100,000 is a conservative estimate.

    2024 - Robert Kiyosaki - $135,000. The Rich Dad Poor Dad author went the rich dad route with this prediction. While his public pronouncements can be attention-grabbing, he tends to change his mind often. He has however been a long-time proponent of hard assets and Bitcoin. While he also seems to think the current financial system is on the verge of collapse, the fundamentals of Bitcoin along with the spot ETF approval could easily get Bitcoin to his price target.

    2024 - Anthony Scaramucci - $250,000. Scaramucci thinks that ETF inflows could drive Bitcoin into the $150-$250k range in 2024. Scaramucci has been a long-time crypto investor, so his prediction does have some basis in reality. The lower end is something we agree with and depending on ETF inflow, the upper bound is possible if things break right in the 2nd half of 2024.

    2024 - Tim Draper - $250,000. Investor Tim Draper has been around forever in Bitcoin terms. In 2014 he bought 30,000 Bitcoin for about $19,000,000 from the US government. The Bitcoin had been seized from the Silk Road. He clearly understands the potential of this asset. Admittedly he first made the $250,000 prediction in 2019 with a target date of year end 2022. Now he is pushing back his end date by a couple of years, but his conviction has been rewarded in the past so who’s to say if it can happen once more?

    2024 - Michael Saylor - $350,000. On November 2, 2023, Saylor went on CNBC and said that when big banks and Wall Street begin to control custody of Bitcoin the price will move 10x. We think he is alluding to the spot ETFs that are coming and if that is the case his prediction could come to fruition in 2024. Ironically, the biggest Bitcoin backer is calling for support from the institutions that Bitcoin sought to replace. But when your reputation is staked on Bitcoin becoming more valuable you will take whatever help you can get. Whether or not we think the Bitcoin ethos is being forgotten, the fundamentals and structural support being put in place can easily propel Bitcoin to these levels. And as investors that is something we welcome.

    2024 - Max Keiser - $400,000. Crypto Twitter personality Max Keiser claims that the hash-adjusted price of Bitcoin is $400,000. If his implied value for Bitcoin is $400,000 there is a lot of room for upside from where we stand now. The model focuses on hashrate which is directly related to mining, and the security, of the Bitcoin network. The theory is that if the cost of mining Bitcoin rises, the price should rise to maintain profitability for the miners. It ignores demand which could be why there is a disconnect between the model and the current Bitcoin price. But with spot ETFs bringing in more institutional and retail participants in 2024 that demand could come soon. We will see.

    2024 - PlanB - $340,000. PlanB is another noted crypto personality. His stock-to-flow (S2F) model seemed prescient during the last cycle bull run and then fell off when the bubble burst. While the model doesn’t seem to have any long-term predictive power it does track well during bull market peaks so $340,000 could be within reach.

    2025 - Bernstein - 150,000. Wealth Management firm Bernstein said that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025. Their rationale is also based on spot ETF inflows and the halving. Calls like this, coming from large allocators with the ability to move large amounts of capital, carry a little more weight than the average crypto Twitter personality. If these institutions can directly influence the demand and put sizable amounts of money to work for clients, Bitcoin, with its constraining supply, can certainly reach these lofty price levels.

    2025 - Bitcoin Rainbow Chart - $425,779. Developed by CoinCodex, the Bitcoin rainbow chart is a logarithmic Bitcoin price chart that includes color bands following a logarithmic regression. The various color bands represent what cycle phase we may be in, given the price. The chart gives a range of possibilities so while it isn’t predicting a specific price the most optimistic range has a year-end value of $425,779 in 2025. Given how previous cycles played out we don’t think that target is too optimistic.

    2030 - Cathie Wood - $1,480,000. The leader of ARK Invest, the tech-focused investment management company, is no stranger to bold predictions. Her Bitcoin prediction equates to annualized returns of more than 60% through 2030. While those expectations are lofty, they aren’t impossible to reach. And with many institutional players like Ark getting involved in 2024 with spot ETFs, it’s not something we’d feel comfortable betting against.

    2038 - Jurrien Timmer - $1,000,000,000. Timmer is the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity. Fidelity is one of the more crypto-friendly TradFi players and this is a prediction we get along with. Timmer has a stock-to-flow model that incorporates Metcalfe’s Law to arrive at a billion-dollar destination. Metcalfe’s law is highly dependent on continuing user adoption of crypto and on Bitcoin remaining the most popular project. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

  2. Recap

     

    If we look at the predictions we see a rosy outlook for Bitcoin over the next 2 years and beyond. The average year-end 2025 price of these predictions is about $275,000. Normally we would be weary when everyone expects Bitcoin to 7x over the next 24 months. But we’ve been here before with past cycles and every time the price responds in a greatly positive way. We don’t see this time being different, especially with a deluge of capital coming from US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs. The US stock market is the deepest and most liquid in the world. Money always finds a way of flowing into winners in a disproportionate way. Bitcoin in its short history has been a winner, and when capital can find its way to Bitcoin more easily it will continue to win and win big. We’re not going to say that $1.5 million in 2030 or $1 billion in 2038 are likely, but they don’t have to be to make Bitcoin one of the most attractive investments from a risk/return aspect that an investor can have access to.

    Finally, if you are looking for last-minute tax advice for 2023 check out this article from Coindesk where we provide some important crypto-related tax tips.

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